Monday, December 22, 2008

Freemanspeak: Climate Change II – Garnaut’s Data Quandary

Please note that I have respect for Professor Ross Garnaut and his position.
In the compilation of the Garnaut Climate Change Review, Prof. Garnaut had to make a very important decision before compiling the economic side of the paper. That decision was what sort of scientific data to use as a basis for the Garnaut Review. It seems evident that Prof. Garnaut was advised by scientists from the CSIRO who seem to have adopted the findings of the International Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report.
In a nutshell, the IPCC concluded that it is “very likely” man influences climate through the production of carbon dioxide.
The IPCC assessment is itself clouded in controversy scientifically as well as politically.
A consensus theory perspective may argue that society has a need and a right to know if man is stuffing up the climate of this climate and that the IPCC was convened to give the world the right answers to the best of their ability.
A Marxist may suggest that the IPCC was formed to negotiate or manipulate scientific evidence to result in findings that would strike fear into the population of the world using rhetoric of future disaster and catastrophe if the planet as a whole does not do something to change things (i.e. reduce carbon pollution).
Whichever analytical methodology applied, Prof. Garnaut chose to use the IPCC as a basis for data for the Garnaut Review. Delving a little deeper, Prof. Garnaut’s choice of using IPCC data was a good one politically. It satisfies the government that commissioned him to do the report as the acceptance of certain anthropogenic causes of climate change as FACT enables the creation of a paper which can justify future economic policy making by the Australian Federal Government.
In fairness to Prof. Garnaut, he does state that there is scientific uncertainty surrounding climate change evidence but uses rhetoric of consensus in mentioning that it is the majority scientific judgement that man has influence over climate change, a general statement not backed up with any source reference. It could be inferred that Prof. Garnaut is relating to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
A major problem exists in the selection of the basic data. If the IPCC Fourth Assessment is proven over time to be correct then the Garnaut Report’s use of the IPCC basic data is justified, a whiggish assessment.
However, the IPCC recommendations are not considered one hundred percent scientific fact. Therefore, the very basis of the Garnaut Report could be based on interpretation of the facts, with these interpretations containing data that could possibly prove to be false. In turn, the report then becomes one of selective interpretation which has been accepted by the current Australian Government and used to create policy which will affect every single person living in Australia.

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