Showing posts with label carbon tax. Show all posts
Showing posts with label carbon tax. Show all posts

Monday, December 22, 2008

Freemanspeak: Climate Change II – Garnaut’s Data Quandary

Please note that I have respect for Professor Ross Garnaut and his position.
In the compilation of the Garnaut Climate Change Review, Prof. Garnaut had to make a very important decision before compiling the economic side of the paper. That decision was what sort of scientific data to use as a basis for the Garnaut Review. It seems evident that Prof. Garnaut was advised by scientists from the CSIRO who seem to have adopted the findings of the International Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report.
In a nutshell, the IPCC concluded that it is “very likely” man influences climate through the production of carbon dioxide.
The IPCC assessment is itself clouded in controversy scientifically as well as politically.
A consensus theory perspective may argue that society has a need and a right to know if man is stuffing up the climate of this climate and that the IPCC was convened to give the world the right answers to the best of their ability.
A Marxist may suggest that the IPCC was formed to negotiate or manipulate scientific evidence to result in findings that would strike fear into the population of the world using rhetoric of future disaster and catastrophe if the planet as a whole does not do something to change things (i.e. reduce carbon pollution).
Whichever analytical methodology applied, Prof. Garnaut chose to use the IPCC as a basis for data for the Garnaut Review. Delving a little deeper, Prof. Garnaut’s choice of using IPCC data was a good one politically. It satisfies the government that commissioned him to do the report as the acceptance of certain anthropogenic causes of climate change as FACT enables the creation of a paper which can justify future economic policy making by the Australian Federal Government.
In fairness to Prof. Garnaut, he does state that there is scientific uncertainty surrounding climate change evidence but uses rhetoric of consensus in mentioning that it is the majority scientific judgement that man has influence over climate change, a general statement not backed up with any source reference. It could be inferred that Prof. Garnaut is relating to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
A major problem exists in the selection of the basic data. If the IPCC Fourth Assessment is proven over time to be correct then the Garnaut Report’s use of the IPCC basic data is justified, a whiggish assessment.
However, the IPCC recommendations are not considered one hundred percent scientific fact. Therefore, the very basis of the Garnaut Report could be based on interpretation of the facts, with these interpretations containing data that could possibly prove to be false. In turn, the report then becomes one of selective interpretation which has been accepted by the current Australian Government and used to create policy which will affect every single person living in Australia.

Freemanspeak: Climate Change I - Introduction

I feel a need to publish some thoughts on Climate Change. Climate change has developed socially into an extremely complex issue.
I will take a stand immediately by saying that I am cynical of climate change caused by man which will lead to a catastrophic future for all of us. Perhaps instead of cynical it may be preferable for me to say I am yet to be convinced.
This little set of articles will hopefully enable me to out my thoughts on the climate change subject somewhere so that in the future I can look back and see how my analytical process is proceeding.
My preferences lie in analysis through scholarship of Sociology and Science and Technology (concentrating on Scientific Controversies). To stop me writing a huge single post on the subject I am going to divide it up. There is no plan as to how I am going to analyse this subject as I am one in favour of the organic growth of thought in relation to new media and social analysis. I will simply put a heading of the general subject I am looking at.
I can see arguments for the whole climate change issue containing many opportunities to re-inforce capitalism and profit from something new. Fair enough, science is doing a lot of research on climate change and passing this information on to anybody that is interested. A problem lies in that scientists are healthily debating causes of climate change within their particular scientific communities but when the issue is taken out of the scientific domain and placed into the hands of policy makers things change.
The issues of climate change are impacting upon societies and with globalisation and modern communication means the impacts are world wide. I am going to try to make some sort of sense of it through this small series of posts.